Monday, August 29, 2016

Our dystrustful future

The always perspicacious, always accessible Z-Man:
In order to have a modern economy, you have to have a certain degree of trust between strangers so that people will plan for the future, take risks and so forth. You cannot have a modern economy in a low-trust society.
The percentages of respondents, by decade, who say that "most people can be trusted" as opposed to "you can never be too careful" (n = 37,407):


In the words of a great dissident, we are doomed.

GSS variables used: YEAR(1970-1979)(1980-1989)(1990-1999)(2000-2010)(2010-2014), TRUST(1-2)

Top and bottom vs middle; 2016 election version

Adapted from a recent Pew report:


Twice as much of Hillary's support compared to Trump's support comes from those earning over $150k per year. But twice as much of Hillary's support compared to Trump's support also comes from those earning less than $30k per year.

While only half of Hillary's support comes from the middle class (broadly defined), more than two-thirds of Trump's support does.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Alt-Right: Thanks Hillary!

Google search volumes over the last year:


The Alt-Right hadn't even been seriously addressed by major media prior to Hillary's speech spotlighting it. All those people who've launched the term into the stratosphere will, if they move beyond the headlines of the last couple of days will find members of the Alt-Right where they are. The perspectives they'll get will be Richard Spencer's, John Derbyshire's, Steve Sailer's, and Vox Day's, not BuzzFeed's sophomoric misrepresentation of their perspectives.

Team Hillary is dumping gasoline on the Alt-Right fire.

In the short run, it probably makes sense tactically. Fear is a major--probably the primary--electoral motivator. It's why Trump is wise to focus on the security angle of Muslim immigration into the West rather than the social, cultural and biological incompatibilities even though these are all far more consequential. It's also why Hillary has stopped talking about her qualifications and started talking non-stop about how a president Trump will blow up the world.

But the amount of time remaining before the Alt-Right replaces the Respectable Right just got a lot shorter. We are where the energy is, the innovation is, the fight is. Our momentum will continue to grow in response to this wailing and gnashing of teeth from the top of the political pyramid.

We're also where the youthful dissidence is. To support Hillary is to fellate the System. To wear a red hat is to give that System the middle finger.



Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Liberal atheists are statists

Stefan Molyneux and Scott Adams tee it up:



The GSS regularly asks respondents if they think the government "ought to reduce the income differences between rich and poor" or if it "should not concern itself with reducing income differences". We can quibble about varying definitions of statism but opinions on governmental income redistribution serve as a pretty good approximation of what we're after.

The following table shows responses to the redistribution question by belief in God. For contemporary relevance and to avoid racial confounding responses are from 2004 onward and only non-Hispanic whites are considered (n = 5,650, one standard deviation = 2.02). Scores are inverted from those assigned by the survey for ease of comprehension. That is, the higher the score, the more statist the position:

On GodStatism
Atheists4.53
Agnostics4.38
Uncertain believers4.19
Firm believers3.98

Atheists are indeed the most statist. Firm believers are the least so.

This can, as Molyneux subsequently alludes to in the video, be attributed in part to political orientation. Atheists tend to be leftists. The secular right is numerically lilliputian.

That's not the entire story, however. While there is little discernible difference among conservative atheists and theists when it comes to statism, atheistic leftists are more statist than theistic leftists are. The same parameters as above but restricted only to political liberals (n = 822):

On GodStatism
Atheists6.02
Agnostics5.35
Uncertain believers5.09
Firm believers5.23

It's unsurprising that atheists are often accused of worshiping the state in place of God. Hillary's campaign team was clearly aware of as much. It's why they wanted to surreptitiously push Bernie Sanders' putative atheism.

GSS variables used: YEAR(2004-2014), EQWLTH(1-7), GOD(1)(2)(3-5)(6), RACECEN1(1), POLVIEWS(1-2)(5-6)

Friday, August 19, 2016

And then there are left liberals

How self-identified political liberals voted in the 2012 presidential election, by race:


Sample sizes are 327, 84, and 50, respectively.

Surprised that not a single black liberal voted for Romney? Don't be, there's plenty of precedence. Exit polling from New York state had a black sample larger than this in 2008 and they didn't find a single black--liberal, moderate, conservative, or otherwise--who voted for McCain.

GSS variables used: RACECEN1(1)(2), HISPANIC(2-98), POLVIEWS(1-3), PRES12(1-2)